Home Opinion Fax-Net Update: First runoff poll numbers

Fax-Net Update: First runoff poll numbers

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The first poll on the runoffs in Louisiana has been conducted, and it has to have the Republican candidates feeling pretty good.

The poll was conducted by The Trafalgar Group, (TFG) recognized for having the most accurate 2016 battleground state polling and electoral college projection.  TFG surveyed 2,200 likely statewide voters from November14 through November 17.

In the U.S. Senate race, the poll showed Republican John Kennedy with 58.3% of the vote to Democrat Foster Campbell’s 35.3%.

Commenting on the survey to the Hayride website, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “Kennedy’s strong support in the U.S. Senate race and presidential vote last week demonstrate that Louisiana continues to be a reliably Republican state. The Democrat victory for Governor in 2015 was a rejection of one candidate and his personal scandals with most down ballot races all going GOP. There’s very little chance of this seat flipping.”

The real numbers were Kennedy 48.1% and Campbell 27.1%.  Leaning were 10.2% for Kennedy and 8.2% for Campbell with 6.4% undecided.

TFG also surveyed 400 likely voters in the 4th Congressional District race.  Republican State Rep. Mike Johnson is leading Democrat Marshall Jones 59.5% to 34.9%.

The  actual  numbers  were  Johnson  48.5%  and  Jones 26.7%.  Leaning to Johnson were 11% and  leaning to Jones was 8.2% with 13.4% undecided.

The influence of the vote President-elect Donald Trump received in the state when he defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton, 58-38%, can be seen.

It’s still early in the runoff scenario, but if the poll is accurate, it shows that the Democrats face an uphill battle to capture the seats.    

louStatewide debates

Two televised statewide debates are planned for  the U.S. Senate race. Candidates Republican John Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell have accepted invitations to participate.

The first one will be held on Thursday, December 1 and hosted by Louisiana Public Broadcasting (LPB)  and a Council for a Better Louisiana (CABL).  It will be aired on LPB stations around the state.

The second one is being hosted by Nexstar and WVLA-TV of Baton Rouge and will be broadcast on Friday December 2.  It will be carried locally by KTAL-TV.

On Monday, November 28 the two candidates will appear in a forum put on by the Press Club of Baton Rouge.  It will net be televised.

Early voting for runoffs

Early voting for the December 10 runoffs will take place on Saturday, November 26 through Saturday, December 3, closed on Sunday, November 27.

One may vote by visiting your parish Registrar of Voters office.  Hours are 8:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily.

All voters are eligible to vote on runoff elections  for U.S. Senator and U.S. House of Representatives.

All voters are eligible to vote on runoff elections for U.S. Senator and U.S. House of Representatives.

In Caddo, some voters will also cast ballots for Juvenile Court Judge.  All parish voters will vote on  four Caddo Commission Home Rule Charter amendments.  The text for all amendments is available at caddovoter.org.

Voters should bring proof of identification, such as a driver’s license or governmental ID.

Lou Gehrig Burnett is a seasoned veteran of national and local politics. He publishes Fax-Net Update, a weekly political newsletter.