Opinion: Lou Gehrig Burnett – Trump Owns Louisiana

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Trump Owns Louisiana

Louisiana is never considered a key state in presidential elections, so it has not been easy to determine how voters feel about the race.

But we finally have two polling snapshots on the Bayou State, and one thing seems certain. Republican Donald Trump owns Louisiana and will pocket the state’s eight electoral votes.
A Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll reveals that Trump has 49%, Democrat Hillary Clinton 33%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 9%, and Green Party Jill Stein 3%. Six percent were undecided.

A four-way match-up gives the best picture of the race. When it was a question that included Trump and Clinton head-to-head, Trump led 53% to 38% with 9% undecided.
The pollster had this to say about Louisiana: “Louisiana should be one of Trump’s most favorable states. The state contains large numbers of white voters without college degrees that have been the backbone of Trump’s support. Louisiana also has a strong populist tradition, which makes it more receptive to Trump’s populist message.

“There is also a less strong #NeverTrump movement in this state than in others. All of the state’s major Republican officials and candidates have endorsed Trump.”
The poll also shows that Clinton gains more support in Louisiana than Trump when it is narrowed down to a two-way race as is the case in most other states.

Looking at the national picture, the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll has Clinton with 244 solid or leaning electoral votes, Trump with 126 solid or leaning, and 168 toss-ups. To win, 270 electoral votes are needed.

Another polling snapshot of Louisiana has been done by Morning Consult, a media and technology company. In a four-way race, Trump has 43.4%, Clinton 29.6%, Gary Johnson 9.7%, Jill Stein 3.4%, and 13.9% undecided. When Trump and Clinton are matched head-to-head, Trump leads by a margin of 50% to 31.7%.

Morning Consult went on to predict the outcome of the election if it were held today, giving Clinton 332 electoral votes to Trump’s 206. Should that be the case, Clinton could lose some key battleground states and still win the election. However, there is still a long way to go before November 8.

Senate poll revisited

We reported last week on a recent poll on the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana conducted by the Hayride website in conjunction with Remington Research Group.
This week, we will look at the support the various candidates in the poll are receiving in different areas of the state.

First, here are the overall results: Treasurer John Kennedy (R) – 27%. PSC Foster Campbell (D) – 16%. Rep. Charles Boustany (R) – 12%. Caroline Fayard (D) – 12%. David Duke (R) – 6%. Rep. John Fleming (R) – 6%. Retired Col. Rob Maness (R) – 4%.

The pollster divided the state into seven sections or areas: Alexandria, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe, New Orleans, and Shreveport. Here is the percentage of the total vote the candidates got in each demographic area (it gives a snapshot of where candidates have work to do):

Alexandria – Kennedy 42%, Fleming 15%, Campbell 11%, Duke 8%, Boustany 5%, Fayard 5%, Maness 1%. Baton Rouge – Kennedy 28%, Fayard 16%, Boustany 12%, Campbell 9%, Duke 6%, Maness 4%, Fleming 1%. Lafayette – Boustany 45%, Fayard 15%, Kennedy 15%, Campbell 8%, Maness 5%, Duke 1%, Fleming 1%. Lake Charles – Campbell 35%, Boustany 28%, Kennedy 11%, Fayard 8%, Duke 6%, Maness 5%, Fleming 4%. Monroe – Kennedy 31%, Fayard 21%, Campbell 12%, Duke 6%, Maness 6%, Fleming 5%, Boustany 2%. New Orleans – Kennedy 36%, Campbell 17%, Fayard 11%, Boustany 6%, Duke 6%, Maness 4%, Fleming 2%. Shreveport – Campbell 32%, Fleming 32%, Kennedy 11%, Duke 11%, Maness 3%, Boustany 0%, Fayard 0%. Keep in mind that the poll was taken in the parishes surrounding these cities, not just in the cities.

Lou Gehrig Burnett is a seasoned veteran of national and local politics. He publishes Fax-Net Update, a weekly political newsletter.